Market Update

  • Stocks poised to hold weekly gains. (10:30am ET) U.S. equities are flat to begin Friday’s session, though on track for a weekly rebound after last week’s slide, as investors await data on industrial production and leading economic indicators. Utilities (-1.1%) and healthcare (-0.9%) led most S&P sectors lower Thursday, although heavily-weighted financials (+0.3%) and technology (+0.2%) helped mitigate the S&P 500 (-0.2%) loss. Overnight, Asian markets were mixed as the KOSPI (+0.7%) continued to gain ground following the ouster of South Korea’s president, while the Shanghai Composite (-1.0%) and Nikkei (-0.4%) both closed lower. In Europe, shares are modestly higher in afternoon trading as bullish sentiment carries over from the last several days. Elsewhere, WTI crude oil ($48.82/barrel) is up slightly, COMEX gold ($1228/oz.) is holding onto recent gains, and Treasury strength continues this week as the yield on the 10-year note has dipped slightly to 2.51%.

Macro View

  • Saint Patrick likes green. Here’s a fun stat: the S&P 500 has historically done well on St. Patrick’s Day. Makes sense, as a day that celebrates green should have some green. As we noted on the LPL Research blog earlier this week, over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has been higher 80% of the time; only seven days of the year have been up more often. In addition, March 17 has been up 0.72% on average the past 20 years, ranking as the sixth-best day of the year. Lastly, in the last 65 years, the S&P has been red only once when St. Patrick’s Day lands on a Friday.
  • A look at sentiment. Recent sentiment surveys paint a mixed picture: the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey had more bulls than bears for the second week in a row, and the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) reported its lowest exposure to equities since the week of the U.S. election. This illustrates a tempered sense of optimism among investors – we aren’t seeing the over-the-top exuberance evident at past market peaks.

Monitoring the Week Ahead

Click Here for our detailed Weekly Economic Calendar



Important Disclosures

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

Investing in foreign and emerging markets securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are subject to interest rate risk and opportunity risk. If interest rates rise, the value of your bond on the secondary market will likely fall. In periods of no or low inflation, other investments, including other Treasury bonds, may perform better.

Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk.

Because of its narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies.

Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments.

Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

Investing in foreign and emerging markets debt securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, geopolitical and regulatory risk, and risk associated with varying settlement standards.

High-yield/junk bonds are not investment-grade securities, involve substantial risks, and generally should be part of the diversified portfolio of sophisticated investors.

Municipal bonds are subject to availability, price, and to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rate rise. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.

Investing in real estate/REITs involves special risks such as potential illiquidity and may not be suitable for all investors. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of this program will be attained.

Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. Whenever investors or companies have assets or business operations across national borders, they face currency risk if their positions are not hedged.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial LLC is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.

Not FDIC/NCUA Insured | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value | Not Guaranteed by any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit

Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor

Tracking #1-591578